The only way to test a formula is to use through an entire baseball season. Luck has a lot to do with it. This formula must be battle tested. You might have a nice run for a week, start thinking you have the best system in the world then lose the next 10 games. Be consistent with your bets and use proper money management and you will the best baseball handicapper.
The fact is anyone can claim to be good at baseball handicapping. Anyone can create a formula and start using it, but it has to be tested. They must be up to date with all trades, injuries, trends and current statistics. Baseball season is very long and there are many ups and downs for every team. Many get lucky but luck only happens occasional. It is better to be lucky than be good, right. For effective baseball handicapping you need to follow a formula. I am a true believe that anyone can be the best baseball handicapper if they so desire. Part of being a good handicapper is promoting yourself as one. My feelings on this are not one individual can be giving that title. A good handicapper will take all this information and plug into their handicapping formula.
Now a proven winning formula is mandatory. Follow the game, use a proven baseball betting formula, there are many available. That is the easy part just about all handicappers claim to be the best.
Now you are probably reading this article because you want to know who is best. You just start analyzing ball games and select your winners. A handicapper that just picks games without close examination is one that I would avoid. There is no license or certification required. The only way to fully grade a handicappers picks is over the entire season.
Just what is a baseball handicapper? According to Wikipedia: Baseball Handicapping is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. Don’t confuse being lucky for being good.
. Let’s make it simple and say that a baseball handicapper is a person that analyzes two baseball teams and attempt to picks the winner.
The best baseball handicappers in one who thoroughly follows the game, uses a proven system along with all those miscellaneous variables to determine their selections. Baseball handicapping is not all based on skill. There is no government rating nor is there any real tracking system.
I would define the best baseball handicapper a one who is truly knowledgeable on the sports. Remember to distinguish the difference between just lucky and picking the right side. Then there are the side variable such as weather conditions, disputes among the players sand mental state of the players
Decimal odds of 2.00 are an even bet. Martin’s Press ISBN 1-57954-927-6
Thompson, William (2001). By the beginning of the third quarter, notorious Vegas bookmaker Frank Rosenthal received forfeiture notices from 246 San Francisco bettors totaling more than $25,000 in premature winnings. Gambling in America–An Encyclopedia of History, Issues, and Society Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO ISBN 1-57607-159-6
Retrieved from “https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sports_betting&oldid=736899340”
North American sports
The Cronje Affair was an India-South Africa Cricket match fixing scandal that went public in 2000. It began in 1996 when the-then captain of the South African national cricket team, Hansie Cronje, was convinced by Mukesh “John” Gupta, an Indian bookmaker, to throw a match during a Test in Kanpur, India. For example, in the NBA, when two teams play each other, one is perceived as being more likely to win. Krista Jenkins, director of the poll commented; “Although support is not overwhelming, these numbers suggest the public is cautiously behind the goal of moving forward with legalized sports betting.”
Sportsbetting has resulted in a number of scandals in sport, such as the 1919 World Series, the alleged (and later admitted) illegal gambling of former MLB player Pete Rose, and former NBA referee Tim Donaghy, effecting the integrity of sports events through various acts including “point shaving” (players effecting the score by missing shots), bad calls from officials at key moments, and overall match fixing (“the fix is in”).
In Asian betting markets, other frequently used formats for expressing odds include Hong Kong, Malaysian, and Indonesian-style odds formats. Illegal bookies, however, pay the winning bettor even money while making the losing bettor pay the vigorish exclusively. Woolley commented: “But…younger voters… ABC News.
^ a b Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, (December 19, 2011). 31 May 2011. As always, a lot depends on who actually shows up to vote.” In February 2011 FDU’s PublicMind released a poll which showed that half (55%) of voters agreed “that people bet on sports games anyway, so government should allow it and tax it.” On the other hand, approximately (37%) of New Jersey voters concurred that betting on sports is “a bad idea because it promotes too much gambling and can corrupt sports.” Again, by a significant margin (70%-26%) that voters who already engage in sports betting in office pools tend to be more supportive of legal sports betting than other voters. Donald Hoover, FDU professor in International School of Hospitality and Tourism Management and former casino executive commented on the results; “Betting on sports is not an uncommon practice for many New Jerseyans, but for the most part, the state doesn’t supervise it, doesn’t tax it and doesn’t take any revenue from it.” In 2010 a national poll, results showed that voters opposed sports betting in all states by a margin of 53-39. European format (decimal odds) are used in continental Europe, Canada, and Australia. Modern research has suggested that the claims of betting were unsubstantiated.
Many of the leading gambling bookmakers from the 1930s to the 1960s got their start during the prohibition era of the 1920s. Moves Towards Legal Sports Betting This Fall, in Time for NFL Season”. However, nearly two-thirds (66%) of voters were not aware of the upcoming statewide referendum on the issue. The PublicMind’s 2010 national survey found that 67% of Americans did not support the legalization of Internet betting websites in the United States whereas 21% said they would support legalization. The National Football League is fully against any sort of legalization of sports betting, strongly protesting it as to not bring corruption into the game. Successful bookmakers must be able to withstand a large short term loss. 26 May 2010. They take bets “up-front”, meaning the bettor must pay the sportsbook before placing the bet. If the player’s first selection complies with the condition (clause), then the second selection will have action; if the second selection complies with the condition, then the third selection will have action and so on.
Run line, puck line, or goal line bets. As the story goes, professional gambler Joseph Sullivan paid eight members of the White Sox (The players involved were Oscar Felsch, Arnold Gandil, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Fred McMullin, Charles Risberg, George Weaver, and Claude Williams) around 10,000 dollars each to fix the World Series. The bookmaker accepts both wagers, and maintains a spread (the vigorish) which will ensure a profit regardless of the outcome of the wager. Illegal bookies, due to the nature of their business, can operate literally anywhere but only require money from losing bettors, creating the possibility of debt to the bookie from the bettor. The term book is a reference to the books used by wagebrokers to track wagers, payouts, and debts.
Philosophy of sport
Racism in sport
Collegiate sport rituals
Types of Supporter
In the United States of America, it is illegal to operate a betting scheme, except in Nevada, Oregon, Delaware, and Montana. In many European nations, bookmaking (the profession of accepting sports wagers) is regulated but not criminalized. Such a bet must be made before the season starts in September, and winning bets will not pay off until the conclusion of the Super Bowl in January or February (although many of the losing bets will be clear well before then and can be closed out by the book). The spread, or line, is a number assigned by the bookmakers which handicaps one team and favors another. Before game 5 of the 2012 NBA Finals, the Miami Heat were expected to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder. The favoured team pays lower odds than does the underdog.
Spread betting are wagers that are made against the spread. “Sports betting should be legal in the Garden State”. The NCAA has threatened to ban all playoff games in Delaware if the state allows betting on college sports. New Jersey, which is also interested, has been similarly threatened.
Joseph J. In these bets, bettor predicts competitors results against each other and not on the overall result of the event. 1. One example are Formula One races, where you bet on two or three drivers and their placement among the others. Legal sportsbooks take vigorish from bettors of both teams, paying a winning bettor a little under 2/1 in an even contest. The frequency of sports bet upon varies by culture, with the vast majority of bets being placed on Association Football (Soccer), American Football, Basketball, Baseball, Hockey, Mixed Martial Arts, and Boxing at both the amateur and professional levels. These are wagers offered as alternatives to straight-up/moneyline prices in baseball, hockey, or soccer, respectively. Fractional odds of 1/1 are an even bet. This bet can be placed on the spread(Line) or over/under. Voters were asked whether New Jersey should allow sports betting even if federal law prevents it from doing so, or wait to allow sports betting until federal law permits it. For example, a bettor could include four different wagers in a four-team parlay, whereby he is wagering that all four bets will win. Sports Scandals Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press ISBN 978-0-313-34458-9
Boyd, Kier (1981). 50: GAMBLING”. A progressive parlay involves multiple bets (usually up to 12) and rewards successful bettors with a large payout, though not as large as normal parlays. Gambling Technology Washington, DC: FBI Laboratory
Rose, Pete (2004). The scheme was discovered when Delhi police recorded illegal dealings between Indian bookmaker Sanjay Chawla and Cronje. Sports betting can also extend to non-athletic events, such as reality show contests and political elections, and non-human contests such as Horse Racing, Greyhound Racing and illegal, underground Dog Fighting.
Sports bettors place their wagers either legally, through a bookmaker/sportsbook, or illegally through privately run enterprises referred to as “bookies”. American Gaming Association.
^ ABC News. Results showed that nearly half (45%) of voters wanted to allow sports betting, while (38%) decided to wait and allow sports betting once Congress allows it. All eight players were banned from playing professional baseball for the rest of their lives.Pete Rose, the all-time MLB leader in hits, was similarly banned from baseball in 1989 for betting on games while he was a MLB manager.
^ “18 USC Ch. For him to win his bet, Miami would have to win the game by 4 points or more. Although the common stereotype is that these bookies were of Italian descent, many leading bookies were of eastern European ancestry.
The majority of legal sportsbooks are found online, operated over the internet from jurisdictions separate from the clients they serve, usually to get around various gambling laws (such as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 in the United States) in select markets, such as Las Vegas, Nevada, or on gambling cruises through self-serve kiosks. Retrieved May 27, 2012.
^ Rob Tornoe, for NewsWorks (17 August 2012). Retrieved 22 June 2013.
^ “How Hansie Cronje became most infamous villain in cricket’s fixing scandals”. Modern algorithms like LSTM appear to be much better predictors of sports outcomes than the vast majority of human bettors.
Davies, Richard (2001). Naturally the more money bet on a certain result, the smaller the odds on that outcome become. “Sport” Sullivan was an American bookmaker and gambler from Boston, Massachusetts who helped to initiate the 1919 Black Sox Scandal.
. It must also be noted that both bookmakers use other methods to increase profits by enticing bettors with greater winnings at higher risk to the bettor (teasers, parlays, adjusting point spreads, etc.).
In setting Odds, the bookmaker is subject to a number of limitations:
The rule against gambling in baseball is known as “Rule 21,” which is publicly posted on dugout walls and states: “Any player, umpire, or club or league official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever on any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform shall be declared permanently ineligible.” People permanently banned from Major League Baseball are also forever banned from entry into the Baseball Hall of Fame, although most such people have been reinstated a few years later by a later Commissioner of Baseball. In general, most sportsbooks will prefer this type of wager due to the low win-probability, and also the longer period of time in which the house holds the player’s money while the bet is pending.
Head-to-Head. To determine who wins against the spread, the line is either added or subtracted from a team’s final score. 19 June 2014. The bettor can adjust the point spreads for the two games, but must get all the games correct to win and recognizes a lower return in comparison to parlays.
If bets. In-play betting is a feature offered by some online sports books that enables bettors to place new bets while a sporting event is in progress.
Main article: Bookmaker
The bookmaker functions as a market maker for sports wagers, most of which have a binary outcome: a team either wins or loses. This bet is placed only at halftime of a particular sporting event. This is similar to parimutuel wagering in horse racing and dog racing.
2nd half bets. In the above example, if the bettor chose Miami, he would subtract 3 points from Miami’s final score and compare that to Oklahoma City’s final score. The team wagered upon might be 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, which means that the bet will pay 50 times the amount wagered if the team does so. In addition, on August 2010, he facilitated betting by placing odds for matches and had links for placing bets.
5 Famous betting scandals
6 See also
9 External links
Association football culture
Australian rules football culture
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. Dr. Retrieved 22 June 2013.
^ “No sport easier to fix than tennis”. The Federal Wire Act of 1961 was an attempt by the US government to prevent illegal bookmaking. However, this Act does not apply to other types of online gambling. The Supreme Court has not ruled on the meaning of the Federal Wire Act as it pertains to online gambling.
Odds for different outcomes in single bet are presented either in European format (decimal odds), UK format (fractional odds), or American format (moneyline odds). (Boyd, 1981)
Media related to Sports betting at Wikimedia Commons
Types of bets
See also: Glossary of bets offered by UK bookmakers
United States of America
Friendly political wager
Sports betting systems
Statistical association football predictions
In 2012, despite federal law preventions, the state legislature of New Jersey and Governor Chris Christie signed a law that would allow sports betting to take place in New Jersey race tracks and Atlantic City casinos. In August 2012, Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind conducted a study on the issue. In 2004 and 2006, Koellerer was banned for six months due to his bad behavior. Betting the Line Columbus, Ohio: The Ohio State University Press ISBN 0-8142-0880-0
Finley, Peter (2008). Rosenthal was able to retain these winnings despite the final outcome of the game due to gambling regulations previously established by the NAGRA.
Moneyline bets do not have a spread or handicap. According to the Telegraph in 2010, Cronje was paid off a total of £65,000 from Gupta.
Interestingly for New Jersey, in a national poll released in December 2011, Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind asked voters whether they “support or oppose changing the federal law to allow sports betting” in their respective states. US format odds are the amount won on a 100 stake when positive and the stake needed to win 100 when negative. Newsworks.org.
^ Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, (August 21, 2012). NJ Voters Favor Sports Betting, but not Tax Credits for Meadowlands Developer (press release)
^ Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, (February 21, 2011). 12 June 2013. An if bet consists of at least two straight bets joined together by an if clause which determines the wager process. Odds are also quite often expressed in terms of implied probability, which corresponds to the probability with which the event in question would need to occur for the bet to be a break-even proposition (on the average).
Betting on the Favorite, an 1870 engraving published in Harper’s Weekly
Many on-line tools also exist for automated conversion between these odds formats.
Aside from simple wagers (for example, betting a friend $20 that one’s favorite baseball team will win its division), sports betting is commonly performed through a bookmaker (bookie) or through various online Internet outlets. Woolley, professor of political science and director of the poll commented on the findings, “Gambling has become, for good or ill, a national industry, and you can bet that politicians and casinos all over the country are closely following New Jersey’s plans.” In a different study released by FDU’s PublicMind in October 2011, results showed that New Jersey voters thought legalizing sports betting in New Jersey was a good idea. “Sports News”. A 2nd half (Second half) bet is also sometimes called a halftime bet. “NFL and ICC’s Stance on Betting”.
^ Finley, 2008
^ “Famous Cricket Spot-Fixing and Betting Scandals”. Sports Betting, Sure Thing; Internet Betting, Nyet! (press release)
^ Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, (April 20, 2009). are far less likely to vote than other voters… This series would go down as one of the biggest sports scandals of all time. This is the most common type of bet in sports.
Proposition bets are wagers made on a very specific outcome of a match. The line read: Miami -3, Oklahoma City +3. To attempt to make wagering on the underdog desirable, the bookmaker will give them points. A teaser allows the bettor to combine his bets on two or more different games. Retrieved 7 November 2014.
^ “Daniel Koellerer banned for life”. While all sports wagers are by definition on future events, bets listed as “futures” generally have a long-term horizon measured in weeks or months; for example, a bet that a certain NFL team will win the Super Bowl for the upcoming season. These bets feature a fixed point spread that (usually) offers a higher payout for the favorite and a lower payout for the underdog (both in comparison to the moneyline).
Future wagers. Expected Values and variance in bookmaker payouts: A Theoretical Approach towards setting limits on odds. Just as many voters approved (42%) as opposed (42%) allowing sports betting. Sometimes you can also bet a “tie”, in which one or both drivers either have the same time, drop out, or get disqualified.
Totalizators. Many of the illegal proceeds also allegedly go to fund terror, drugs and other illegal activities.
Cultures by sport
Sporting man culture
Bookmakers usually hold an 11-10 advantage over their customers–for small wagers it is closer to a 6-5 advantage–so the bookmaker will most likely survive over the long term. 9.
^ “Sports Betting”. Half of New Jersey voters (52%) said that they approved the idea of legalizing sports betting at Atlantic City casinos and racetracks, 31% opposed it. The violations were outstanding between October 2009 and July 2010 after The Tennis Integrity Units had launched an investigation on behalf of the International Tennis Federation and the ATP and WTA tours. Woolley commented on the results: “If some states allow sports betting and profit by it, other states will want to follow.” Yet by December 2011 after NJ passed its sports betting referendum the national measure shifted to 42-42. In January 2012, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie signed legislation allowing sports betting in New Jersey after it was approved in a nonbinding voter referendum in 2011 and he announced on May 24, 2012 that he plans to go ahead and set up a system of wagering at the state’s racetracks and casinos this fall, before the National Football League season ends.
Famous betting scandals
Wagebrokers both legal and illegal make a profit by taking a percentage of all money bet, called a vigorish (vig), juice, rake, or action. Odds for such a bet generally are expressed in a ratio of units paid to unit wagered. house.gov.
^ Fifth Circuit ruling – PDF file
^ (Davies, 2001)
^ Cortis, Dominic (2015). However, voters who already live in households where family members (including themselves) engage in sports betting had a strongly favored legalization of sports betting (71%-23%), while voters in households where sports betting is not an activity, opposed legalization (46%-36%). The resulting bet that is placed is won or lost only on the points scored by both teams in the second half only.
In-play betting. (For instance, Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays were both banned from baseball in 1983 after taking jobs as casino greeters (which would have expelled them from the Hall of Fame had it been allowed to stand); they were reinstated two years later. They are the ratio of the full payout to the stake, in a decimal format. Only Rose has yet to be reinstated.
A 1906 betting scandal between the Massillon Tigers and Canton Bulldogs, two of the top teams in professional American football in the early 1900s, led to the demise of “big-money” professional football for several years. 55 Austrian tennis player, Daniel Koellerer, became the first tennis player to be banned for life for attempting to fix matches. UK format (fractional odds) are used by British bookmakers. The many types of bets include:
1 in 1.5 = 67%
1 in 2 = 50%
1 in 2.5 = 40%
1 in 3 = 33%
x-1, then convert to fraction
100*(x-1) if x>2; -100/(x-1) if x<2
divide fraction, then x+1
divide fraction, then 100*x if x>=1; -100/x if x<1
(x/100)+1 if x>0; (-100/x)+1 if x<0
x/100, if x>0; -100/x, if x<0
x if x>=1; (1/x)*-1 if x<1
x if x<=1; (1/x)*-1 if x>1
1 Types of bets
1.1 United States of America
Lately sportsbetting has emerged as an interesting field of research for artificial intelligence algorithms. For example: If the bookmakers return percentage is 90%, 90% of the amount placed on the winning result will be given back to bettors and 10% goes to the bookmaker. US odds of 100 are an even bet.
Corruption in tennis has been long considered as issue. In 2011, the former world No. They are the ratio of the amount won to the stake – the solidus “/” is pronounced “to” for example 7/1 “seven to one”. The National Law Review. However, in a progressive parlay, unlike a regular parlay, a reduced payout will still be made even should some of the bets lose.
Teasers. A Nation of Bettors? (press release)
^ Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, (October 10, 2011). In totalizators (sometimes called flexible-rate bets) the odds are changing in real-time according to the share of total exchange each of the possible outcomes have received taking into account the return rate of the bookmaker offering the bet. They were often descendants of the influx of immigrants coming into the USA at this time. On the other hand, the CEO of the International Cricket Council believe sports betting, in particular in India, should be legalized to curb illegal bookies where match fixing has occurred from nontransparent bookmakers. Clothing
In 1919, the Chicago White Sox faced the Cincinnati Reds in the World Series. Retrieved 20 October 2014.
In areas where sports betting is illegal, bettors usually make their sports wagers with illicit bookmakers (known colloquially as “bookies”) and on the Internet, where thousands of online bookmakers accept wagers on sporting events around the world. Journal of Prediction Markets. My Prison Without Bars St. Examples include predicting the number of goals each team scores in a handball match, betting whether a player will score in a football game, or wagering that a baseball player on one team will accumulate more hits than another player on the opposing team.
Parlays involve multiple bets (usually up to 12) and will reward a successful bettor with a large payout. In addition, there was a significant gender split: a majority of men approved of the idea by a wide margin (65-21), while only 39% of women approved and 41% opposed. The October results were stable, reflecting an earlier poll in April 2011 where New Jersey voters approved the legalization of sports betting in the state by a margin of 53%-30%. “N.J. Opinion divided, but majority give the state the green light to allow sports betting in defiance of federal law (press release)
^ Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind Poll “US Public: Keep Las Vegas in Las Vegas” press release (March 2010)
^ Shriver, Roger. Age proved to be a divide: Voters between the ages 18-34 were more likely to approve of sports betting than older voters. This creates a number of other criminal elements, thus furthering their illegality.
The probability implied by the odds should be greater than the true probability for each possible outcome to guarantee positive expected profit.
If the wagers on each outcome are made in ratio to the implied odds, then the bookmaker is guaranteed a profit (balanced book).
On December 7, 1980 the San Francisco 49ers overcame a halftime deficit of 28 points in what became the greatest regular season comeback victory in NFL regular season history. US Public: Keep Las Vegas in Las Vegas (press release)
^ Coffey, Sarah (May 25, 2012). Legalized Sports Betting in New Jersey
^ Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, (March 11, 2010). If any of the four bets fails to cover, the bettor loses the parlay, but if all four bets win, the bettor receives a substantially higher payout (usually 10-1 in the case of a four-teamer) than if he made the four wagers separately.