Horse Racing Systems: 5 That Work

This system takes advantage of one of the few glaring inefficiencies in the parimutuel pools, namely that first and second time starters are badly over-bet.

Horse Racing System #2 – Bet horses that have an excuse for a poor performance in their last race. One of the few anomalies turned up by Michael Nunamaker in his pioneering computer study “Modern Impact Values”, published in 1994, was that horses breaking from the inside post position in route races won more than their fair share of races, and were under-bet by the public. This offers opportunity to more diligent players.

Horse Racing System #4 – Bet low-priced favorites to place. My computer studies of pedigree, based on nearly 100,000 races, suggest that using pedigree in that manner offers no advantage to the player.

First time starters return only about 60 cents on the dollar, and second time starters are only a little better, returning less than 70 cents on the dollar. My study suggests that’s not the case.

Horse Racing System #3 – In maiden claiming races, bet the horse with the best pedigree. They will, however increase the chances of a profitable day at the races by ensuring that your wager dollars go where they have the best chance of success. Let me let you in on a little secret about these “magic formulas”. In most case the public seems to take a horse’s last running line at face value. To the extent that most handicappers use pedigree at all, it’s usually to identify horses that may improve when switched to the turf, or those who may be expected to win as first time starters. I was able to replicate this result in my own study of nearly 100,000 races conducted a decade later.

Horse Racing System #1 – In maiden races, bet the horse with the best last race speed figure that has had at least two career starts. With the BRIS pp’s you can use the Sire Production Factor in concert with the pedigree rating. Because speed figures have gained in popularity over the years, anyone following that system now would have trouble coming up with gas money for the ride home from the track.

In fact, pedigree does not generally offer wager value with one curious exception: well bred horses do surprisingly well in maiden claiming races. If the tote board suggests that the public is overlooking these mitigating circumstances, make your play.

None of these systems will make you rich, or even guarantee that you will make a profit. The horse with the best combination of the two is the play.

For as long as humans have bet on horse racing there have been system sellers trying to con the gullible into parting with their hard earned money with the lure of easy profits to be made on the sport of kings. It must follow, therefore, that if we bet the best horse that has started at least twice, we stand an excellent chance of beating the takeout, particularly in races that have several first and second time starters.

This causes the favorite to be under bet in the place pool, leading to a profit opportunity for us to take advantage of by betting the favorite to place. My own studies have shown a similar advantage for the inside post in routes.

Horse Racing System #5 – Bet Horses breaking from the inside post in route races. This is somewhat counter-intuitive since you’d expect that horses with good pedigrees that end up in the maiden claiming ranks probably can’t run at all. None of them work.

Look for comment lines like “bled”, “lost rider”, “clipped heels”, “stumbled”, “steadied”, “between horses”, “rank”, and “jumped shadows” that suggest that a horse’s last race was not indicative of its true ability. It should go without saying that you should actually like the favorite’s chances after evaluating the race with your own handicapping.

In that spirit. This is another mistake that bettors make: in a race with a clear standout, many people give up on the win pool and bet their choice to place, thinking that they’ll get paid even if the favorite wins.

Instead of blindly betting all horses breaking from the inside, you might use this to supplement your handicapping, paying particular attention to the inside horse, and betting it when you like the horse on other handicapping grounds. Thanks for reading, and see you in the winner’s circle.

Second, the very nature of the parimutuel system itself means that any profits to be made from following a particular set of rules will quickly be arbitraged away as the followers of that system drive down the odds of horses chosen by the system.

The horse with the best last race speed figure (whether Beyer, BRIS, or Equibase) may not be the best horse in the race, but he’s probably not far off, so we can use that as a proxy for selection purposes.

Looking for a dead simple horse racing system that will allow you to quit your job and make a living betting the horses in just 10 minutes a day? Good luck with that!

However, just because systems won’t make you rich doesn’t mean there’s no place for them at all in a horseplayer’s arsenal. I’ve identified some of the most useful handicapping factors that have a proven history of doing much better than the track takeout and put them together with some simple rules that should make your trips to the racetrack more fun and profitable. Few bother to even look at the comment line for the race, let alone take the trouble to seek out and watch the replay of the race. Just don’t expect to quit your day job.

In the first place, the parimutuel takeout in horse racing is large (over 15%) and the mutuel pools are relatively efficient, so that even systems with a strong basis in reality can’t overcome the size of the takeout.

How do we identify the best pedigree, then? If you’re using the DRF past performances, use the stud fee as a proxy for quality, and the Tomlinson figure to judge suitability for the distance and surface. Most people who love horse racing would be thrilled just to win a little more and lose a little less on their trips to the track.

Nunamaker reported that the inside post in dirt route races won at a 20% greater than expected rate, and lost only 10 cents on the dollar, much better than the track take. The inside post combined with early speed is a particularly potent combination, since the horse will not have to exert himself as much to gain his preferred position at the front of the pack.

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For instance, many speed figure handicappers reported making horse racing profits in the 60’s and 70’s simply by betting horses with the best last race speed figure. The inside post in turf routes actually showed a small profit, but this was based on a small sample size and cannot be relied upon

Interesting Information on Horse Racing You Probably Didn’t Know

It is even more dangerous in case of fast-pace races, because the faster the horses run, more severe is the fall and the resulting injury. The California Senate passed a bill regarding the same issue following Barbaro’s death. Well, we hope so too, otherwise, it won’t be too long for the reign of this beloved sport to come to an end.

. Experts say that laying softer tracks like polytracks, can be safer for the horses than the hard-mud surfaces. According to the Jockey’s Guild statistics, 128 riders have died in America on the racetracks since the year 1940. Measures like giving better financial aid to the injured jockeys and implementation of on-site medical facilities can be taken.

The National Thoroughbred Racing Association has stated that its Safety and Integrity Alliance will help implement all these measures.

Not only for the horses, horse racing is life-threatening to the jockeys too. They often fall down from their horse and are crippled by the other horses running over them, causing spinal cord and even brain injuries

How to Bet the Kentucky Derby: A Beginner’s Guide

Therefore, betting on him won’t yield a big payout. What’s a superfecta anyway, and how do you bet one?

Picking a Horse

There are 20 horses in the field for the Kentucky Derby, though as of now only 19 will be running Saturday (#11 Hopportunity was “scratched.”) All the horses are 3-year-old male thoroughbreds, which means they’re young horses with lots of talent that is still developing and not a ton of experience.

Many casual bettors will pick a horse based on name or looks, but there are better ways to judge the odds for whether a horse has a shot at winning. For a superfecta you pick the top four finishers in the right order. The Kentucky Derby is one and a quarter miles long, longer than any race these horses have run before, so the winner will need stamina.

Odds and Favorites

When you look at a race form there will be a number in parentheses after each horse’s name. The words “first, second, and third,” are replaced by “win, place, and show.” If you think your horse is pretty good but not going to come in first, you can bet that he will “place,” — that is, come in first or second. Give that a good look to see who’s done well recently.

Look for a horse that has won most of his races by a good length. Horses with lower first number (10 and down) are considered top contenders.

Betting on a horse with good odds will not pay out much money if they win. If you’re not going to be in Louisville for the big day, you can head to your local racetrack or off-track betting outlet and place a bet there.

Like all sports, horse racing has its own language that can be confusing to casual watchers. He’s dominated all the races he’s run so far and all eyes will be on him. A horse that goes into the race with 50-1 odds but comes in first place will pay out the most money to the bettor. If your horse comes in any of those positions, you’ll get money.

If you’re sure you’ve got the winner and you only want to place a simple bet for him to come in first, go ahead and bet your money that way. Saturday. You’re trying to hit the sweet spot: a horse with okay odds who you think has a shot at winning.

The favorite going into this weekend is California Chrome, with 5-2 odds. That number shows what the odds are that the horse will win. Here’s a quick guide:

Exacta: You pick the two horses you think will come in first and second, in that order.

Trifecta: Pick the three horses you think will come in first, second, and third – in the right order.

Superfecta: You guessed it. It looks something like this: Vicar’s In Trouble (20-1).

Horses with a high first number (like 20-1 or 50-1) are considered unlikely to win the race. Conversely, betting on a horse with bad odds will pay out a lot of money if they do win.

Here’s our guide to making sense of the Run for the Roses. If you’re in it for the thrill of victory alone (and not the money), he’s a good bet.

Betting on Your Picks: “I’ll take $2 to win on the four horse, please.”

In horse racing, you need to bet on what place the horse will come in. Like it’s name implies, the superfecta pays out big bucks if you manage to get it right.

You’ve got your mint julep and your fancy hat ready for the Kentucky Derby, but are you ready to place your bet on the horse you think will win?

Now it’s off to the races. Good luck racing fans!. Say, “I’ll bet $2 on (horse’s name or number) to win.”

If you’re done with the beginner stage of betting, you can up your odds of winning by doing more complicated bets that yield bigger payouts: exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. Each horse will have a record of recent races he’s run, what place he finished, and how far ahead of the other horses he was. You can place your bet anytime up until about 20 minutes before the race goes off at 6:24 p.m. Or you can bet that he will “show,” — that is, come in first, second, or third